Abstract
Abstract. We projected incident surface solar radiation (SSR) over China in the middle (2040–2059) and end (2080–2099) of the 21st century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario using a multi-model ensemble derived from the weighted average of seven global climate models (GCMs). The multi-model ensemble captured the contemporary (1979–2005) spatial and temporal characteristics of SSR and reproduced the long-term temporal evolution of the mean annual SSR in China. However, it tended to overestimate values compared to observations due to the absence of aerosol effects in the simulations. The future changes in SSR showed increases over eastern and southern China, and decreases over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and northwest China relative to the present day. At the end of the 21st century, there were SSR increases of 9–21 W m−2 over northwest, central, and south China, and decreases of 18–30 W m−2 over the TP in June–July–August (JJA). In northeast China, SSR showed seasonal variation with increases in JJA and decreases in December–January–February. The time series of annual SSR had a decreased linear trend for the TP, and a slightly increased trend for China during 2006–2099. The results of our study suggest that solar energy resources will likely decrease in the TP under future climate change scenarios.
Highlights
1.1 General InstructionsIncident surface solar radiation (SSR) is the fundamental energy source for the earth, directly influencing climate, the hydrologic cycle, ecological systems, and human life
Decadal changes in SSR are correlated with temperature, which are responsible for the absence of global warming in the 1950s–1980s (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001; Wild et al, 2007; 2009)
Few studies have focused on projections of SSR under future climate change scenarios, or the potential impacts of global warming on SSR variation
Summary
Incident surface solar radiation (SSR) is the fundamental energy source for the earth, directly influencing climate, the hydrologic cycle, ecological systems, and human life. Variation in SSR is considered crucial for understanding the decadal changes in various climatic factors on the Earth, which for the most part, can be detected from direct measurements (Augustine et al, 2000; Ackerman and Stokes, 2003; Philipona et al, 2004; Dutton et al, 2006), indirect proxy measurements (planetary albedo, diurnal temperature range, sunshine duration, and pan evaporation; Roderick and Farquhar, 2002; 2004; Harries et al, 2005; Abakumova et al, 2008; Sanchez-Lorenzo et al, 2008; Makowski et al, 2009; Palle et al, 2009; Wang and Dickinson, 2013; Liu et al, 2015; Manara et al, 2015), and satellitederived products (Pinker et al, 2005; Hinkelman et al, 2009; Zhang et al, 2015). In this study, we used an ensemble of multi-GCM outputs to validate their ability to simulate SSR in present-day China, and predicted changes of SSR in a climate change scenario of high GHG emissions
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