Projection of future precipitation of Thanjavur district using regional climate model – CORDEX

Abstract

Changing climate leads to increased natural hazards like cyclone, flood and drought, in turn, cause severe damage to humanity and his dwellings. Thus, climate change projection is crucial for predicting natural disasters in advance and creating awareness and readiness among people. This research is aimed to project the precipitation using the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from 2021 to 2100 for Thanjavur district. The simulation’s biases hinder the usage of the model as a direct input data for climate change and impact studies. Hence, the bias correction was done using the Delta Change method with 30 years of historical data. The result shows that the intensity of precipitation gradually increases by 110.08 mm in near range, 115.76 mm in mid range and 187.69 mm in the far range, especially increases towards the east in the study area. The possibility of significant flood events during 2050, 2093 and 2098 and drought during 2025, 2055 and 2080 is envisaged. The study can be a useful tool for environmentalist, urban planners and policymakers of disaster management.