Projection of Female Urban Population in Bangladesh

Abstract

Government and Non-government organizations necessitate the use of population projections for producing the reasonable plans for future development. The purpose of the current study is to build models, and project female population of urban area in Bangladesh by using nationally representative population census data. The exponential model and the exponential growth rate method were used to fulfill the objectives. Model validity was checked through the model validation procedure, and cross-validity prediction power (CVPP). It was found that age pattern for urban female population in Bangladesh followed two parameters negative exponential model. Smallest shrinkage coefficients obtained from CVPP and larger value of F-statistics were showing better fit of these models. The projection of population was done during 2012–2041 employing exponential growth rate method. It was investigated that the projected population in 2012, 2021, 2031 and 2041 would be 17,087, 20,433, 25,395 and 32,204 thousands correspondingly. The female population and female aged population of urban area in Bangladesh would be doubled after 39.12 years and 18.47 years respectively. This should be considered as alarming retaining to good health for the female population of urban area in Bangladesh, therefore need to be addressed policies for better health.