Projection of death rates from ischemic heart disease in Japan, 1985-2000.

Abstract

Death rates from all forms of ischemic heart disease and acute myocardial infarction were projected between 1985 and 2000 A.D., based on vital statistics from 1973 to 1982 and the estimated population by sex and age groups in Japan. It is predicted that the crude death rate from ischemic heart disease will increase (+1.4% per year for males and +1.8% for females), and that the age-adjusted death rate will decrease (-1.1% per year for males and -1.4% for females). The crude death rate from acute myocardial infarction is predicted to increase steadily (+2.4% per year for males and +2.2% for females), though the age-adjusted rate will decline slightly (-0.5% per year for males and -1.0% for females) throughout this period. The crude death rate from acute myocardial infarction is predicted to increase more than the rate from ischemic heart disease. It is estimated that the total number of deaths will increase from 48,000 (males and females combined) in 1982 to 72,000 in 2000 for ischemic heart disease, and from 29,600 in 1982 to 45,500 in 2000 for acute myocardial infarction.