Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distancing measures.

Abstract

To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds. Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories. The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 - 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 - 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020. The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.