Projection of Carbon Emissions from the Diesel, Biodiesel, and Battery Electric Vehicle in Indonesia: A Policy Scenario Analysis for Decarbonization of Transportation Sector

Abstract

The Indonesian government is intensifying the mandatory biodiesel program to achieve the carbon emission reduction target. Although the emissions from the use of biodiesel are lower than diesel, its rapid development has raised concerns about other environmental issues, such as deforestation, hydrological disturbances, and biodiversity. At the same time, the global trend of electric cars offers a new alternative to the decarbonization of the transportation sector. Therefore, this study aims to compare the carbon emission reduction of biodiesel and electric vehicle policy scenarios. The baseline scenario is defined as full usage of diesel. The projection is conducted until 2060 using a model built with Vensim software. As a result, the biodiesel program with a 30% blending rate (B30) only reduced carbon emissions by 6.14 and 11.26 million tons in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Higher emissions reduction can be achieved by increasing the blending rate to 50% and 100%. On the other hand, emission reduction from electric vehicles program is very dependent on the energy mix of electricity generation. Under the 2021–2030 National Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) target, the electric vehicle scenario would produce higher emissions than the baseline scenario. However, there is a potential emission reduction of up to three times larger than B100 by the electric vehicle (EV) scenario if the EV transition is accompanied by an ambitious energy transition.