Projection of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China for the period 2010–2020

Abstract

The future (2010–2020) anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China were projected in this study using 2005 as the reference year. The projections are based on the assumptions of a lower population growth rate (less than 1%), continuous economic development with high GDP growth, and increased urbanization. The results show that the national VOCs emissions would continuously increase from 19.4 Tg in 2005 to 25.9 Tg in 2020, even if China's legislative standards for VOCs emissions are implemented effectively in the future (assumed as control scenario I). The contributions of various emission sources were found to differ greatly in the period of 2010–2020. Solvent utilization would become the largest contributor rising from 22% to 37%, along with an increase for industrial processes from 17% to 24%. However, road vehicle emissions would rapidly decrease from 25% to 11% due to the strict VOCs emission limit standards in China, along with the decrease for stationary fuel combustion from 23% to 16% caused by the reduction of domestic biofuel consumption. Additionally, there would be a notable divergence among provincial emissions. The developed eastern and coastal regions would emit more VOCs than the relatively underdeveloped western and inland regions. Moreover, this divergence grows in the future. When we assumed stricter control measures for solvent utilization and industrial processes (control scenario II) for that period, the projections revealed national VOCs emissions per year would remain at about 20 Tg, if exhaust after-treatment systems are installed in newly-built factories (after 2005) for the most important industrial sources, and the market shares of “low/zero-VOCs” products in paints, adhesives and printing ink raise to the present levels of developed countries. The emission abatements of the two types of measures were estimated to be similar. While scenario II indicates that the sectoral and provincial differences of VOCs emissions would still exist, they would be smaller than in scenario I.