Abstract
Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modeling. This study found that changes of dust activity in the U.S. in the recent decade are largely associated with the variations of precipitation, soil bareness, and surface winds speed. Using multi-model output under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, we project that climate change will increase dust activity in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the twenty-first century – largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness, and increased surface wind speed. Over the northern Great Plains, less dusty days are expected in spring due to increased precipitation and reduced bareness. Given the large negative economic and societal consequences of severe dust storms, this study complements the multi-model projection on future dust variations and may help improve risk management and resource planning.
Highlights
Climate models project increases of drought conditions in the southwest and central Great Plains in the late twenty-first century[1, 2], co-located with the major dust sources in the United States (U.S.)
The hot spot over the Great Plains in spring and summer is associated with wind erosion in farmland and a few dry lakes, whereas in the southern Great Plains and the Gulf coast transported dust from Africa and northern Mexico can contribute to the high frequency (Fig. 1)
The dustier region extends further north in summer, some models project a decrease of dust optical depth (DOD) over the northern Great Plains and the northwest coast, while in fall the increase of DOD is largely over the southern U.S with a weak decrease in the north. This is an early attempt to project future changes in dust activity in the U.S caused by increasing greenhouse gases, and the projections are based on the understanding of the controlling factors affecting dust event frequency in the present-day climate
Summary
Climate models project increases of drought conditions in the southwest and central Great Plains in the late twenty-first century[1, 2], co-located with the major dust sources in the United States (U.S.). If these models are correct, will the level of “unprecedented” aridity in the half of this century[2] produce more dust storms in the future? Given the severe health and social impact of the dust storms (e.g., refs 3, 4) several model studies have attempted to estimate future projections of dust on a global scale, with uncertain results (e.g., refs 5, 6). The RCP 8.5 scenario represents the upper limit of the projected CO2 changes in the twenty-first century and, presumably, would be the worst-case scenario of severe droughts and resultant dust activities
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