Projection and Analysis of National Energy Consumption Levels on Indonesia’s Economic Growth Rate through Exponential Smoothing Approach

Abstract

This study briefly wants to know the value of the projections of Indonesia’s total energy consumption and how it affects the economic growth that occurs. This is also in line with the need for preventive actions related to the type of policy that will be carried out by decision makers where in this case the government will have an impact on the economic performance of a region reflected in the data presented in income posts and expenditure from Gross Domestic Product. The forecast method used in this study is the Exponential Smoothing method which emphasizes the procedure of continuous improvement of the latest observation objects. This method consists of three types, namely simple exponential smoothing, holt winters and triple exponential smoothing models which will be seen which model is the best. Based on the projection analysis, it was found that the Holt Winters Smoothing Smoothing method was the best method of the other method with R Square value of 0.608, RMSE of 68.446, MAPE of 4.495 and Normalized BIC of 8.888. Based on the projection results for the next n years, total energy consumption has an upward trend with the projection value in 2018 amounting to 1248.76 (thousand barrels of oil equivalent and experiencing an increase in 2019 amounting to 1273.47 (thousand BOE).