Projecting the Supply and Demand of Prosthetists and Orthotists in Singapore

Abstract

ABSTRACT Introduction Singapore's aging population and prevalence of chronic diseases and conditions continue to grow along with the need for prosthetic and orthotic services. We need to understand the supply of prosthetic and orthotic services and prosthetists and orthotists (P&Os) to optimize care. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the recent and the future supply and demand for P&Os in Singapore. Methods This was a retrospective medical record review. We identified the seven conditions requiring prosthetic and orthotic services and applied condition-specific admission rates on the projected population of Singapore through 2060 to obtain the number of inpatient admissions requiring the services. We then converted these numbers to prosthetist/orthotist hours by multiplying by prosthetist/orthotist workload for each condition. Finally, we applied two supply scenarios to examine potential P&O shortfall. Results The shortfall was estimated to be 9.4 and 5.4 in 2016 under the respective scenarios. These gaps increase to 18.4 and 5.8, respectively, in 2030, and 28.1 and 6.2, respectively, in 2060. Conclusions The existing shortfall of P&Os in Singapore will continue to grow from 2016 to 2060. Appropriate strategies should be considered and implemented in a timely manner to manage the potential shortfall. Clinical Relevance Projecting the demand for future prosthetist/orthotist manpower through a specific condition-driven and time-based utility approach provides an alternative model to only a linear population growth. This may provide a more accurate predictability and selection of precise strategies to manage future manpower demands.