Projecting the proliferation risk of Oncomelania hupensis in China driven by SSPs: A multi-scenario comparison and integrated modeling study

Abstract

Climate change has been known to cause variations in the geographically suitable areas for the schistosome-transmitting Oncomelania hupensis (O. hupensis). The spread of snails not only depends on the degree of warming but also on the socioeconomic development of the next few decades. Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) published by CMIP6 consider carbon emission pathways as well as influences of distinct types of social development and land use on the regional climate, providing the possibility to accurately evaluate the impact of socioeconomic development and climate variation on the spread of O. hupensis. This study employed SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 and the correlative approach to explore the impacts of climate change and socioeconomic development on the potential diffusion areas for O. hupensis in China. The results exhibited strong evidence that O. hupensis will spread in the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and disappear from a small part of its current southern habitat, whereas in Sichuan and Yunnan, O. hupensis may spread slightly to the southeast. The projection also demonstrated that fossil fuel-driven development (SSP585) will be more conducive to the spread of O. hupensis breeding sites in the 2030s, whereas the continuous increase in snail breeding habitats under the regional rivalry path (SSP370) may lead to great challenges in snail control in the long term (2020–2080).