Abstract
The debate continues over the question of whether illicit drugs, including cocaine, ought to be decriminalized or legalized. At the center of this debate is the question of how law enforcement affects drug prevalence. In this article the author presents an application of an existing system dynamics model of national cocaine prevalence to determine the potential impact of policies involving a relaxation of law enforcement — represented in the model as reductions in arrests or drug seizures. Although the model's predictive ability is limited by uncertainties about input assumptions, these uncertainties are well defined, few in number, and bounded to some degree by historical and logical considerations. Even in the presence of such uncertainties, the model produces credible and valuable projections. Dynamic simulation models may prove useful as common platforms for discussion and analysis in the context of the drug enforcement debate.
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