Abstract
Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.
Highlights
Speaking, zooplankton are ectothermic, short-lived, rarely exploited, and track environmental variation of water masses, making them good indicators of climate change[1]
In order to examine how C. finmarchicus populations on the Northeast U.S Shelf will be impacted in the future by climate change, we examined six climate models to determine how the fundamental niche of C. finmarchicus is expected to change with continued global warming
C. finmarchicus was common in Southern New England and Georges Bank during this period, averaging 210,000 n/100 m3
Summary
Zooplankton are ectothermic, short-lived, rarely exploited, and track environmental variation of water masses, making them good indicators of climate change[1]. During copepodite stage 5, C. finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine enter diapause and overwinter at ~100–400 m, surviving on stored lipid reserves[11, 12] In the spring, it comes out of diapause, moves towards the surface and reproduces, timing the end of diapause slightly before the onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom[13, 14]. In the Gulf of Maine, sea surface temperature has warmed three times faster than the global ocean average[16, 17] This is especially concerning because C. finmarchicus on the Northeast U.S Shelf is in the southern portion of its range, where environmental effects have a dominant role in shaping density and distribution[18, 19]. More knowledge on a finer geographic and seasonal scale is needed for the Northeast U.S Shelf
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