Projecting the Effects of Air Carrier Fleet Plans on Future National Airspace System Operations

Abstract

The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Performance and Operations Analysis developed a five-year operational outlook for the National Airspace System (NAS) to help better anticipate air traffic demand for planning and staffing purposes. Until now, most aviation forecasts have been based on long-term economic trends. In contrast, the approach presented in this paper, the Five Year Rolling Projection (FYRP), relies on public statements made by the major US carriers regarding their fleet and network plans. Airline fleet plans are relatively fixed for the near future because carriers are usually obligated to take delivery of aircraft orders. Therefore, short-term future operations growth is constrained by these fleet plans regardless of economic uptrends. Using 2013 publicly available information, the FYRP reports operations across the NAS will decrease by five percent and passenger capacity will increase by eleven percent by 2018. Traffic Control Center and Terminal Radar Approach Control facility traffic are each projected to decrease by four percent.