Abstract
The next weeks will be critical in determining the conditions and timing of the 4th wave of COVID-19 in France. We assessed epidemic risk to assist spatially targeted surveillance and control. Southwest is estimated to be at highest risk, due to summer crowding, low acquired immunity and Delta variant hotspots.
Highlights
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not
Presence of Delta variant, vaccination and infection-acquired immunity are heterogeneous in space, and this may be further exacerbated by summerseason mobility
We propose a risk metric based on five components to identify the departments in mainland France that will be more exposed to sharp surges during summer 2021
Summary
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. Email: vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr Submitted 28 July 2021; Revised 5 August 2021; Editorial Decision 6 August 2021; Accepted 6 August 2021 Case incidence is increasing with the rapid progression of the Delta variant (63% of detected cases carried the L452R mutation as of July 16).[1,2] Vaccination rates had been dropping since the end of May,[3] but recently announced policies have boosted them.
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