Projecting Texas energy use for residential sector under future climate and urbanization scenarios: A bottom-up method based on twenty-year regional energy use data

Abstract

In this research, a method of assessing the synergetic impacts of global climate change and urbanization on regional energy use of residential sector is proposed. Information such as floor area, energy using types in Texas (TX) are extracted from Residential Energy Consumption Survey for the modeling of the archetype buildings using a lightweight building simulation tool SimBldPy. The calibrated bottom-up model based on 1993 to 2009 energy use data has been validated by the 2015 survey data. Hourly weather data for TX to the year of 2060 are developed and three urbanization scenarios are developed. It is found the primary energy use of mobile house, single detached, single attached, 2–4 units apartment, and more than 5 units apartment range from 10750 GWh to 16263 GWh, 412621 GWh to 470635 GWh, 16520 GWh to 19160 GWh, 11002 GWh to 12871 GWh, and 50389 GWh to 59160 GWh, respectively at the year of 2060. The regression analysis finds out that one more percent of the proportion of more than 5 units apartment (r>5units) in the urban area will incur 2216 GWh saving for the regional total primary energy use. The scientific values of this research include computational lightweightness, long-term validity of the model, and the inclusion of both climate change and urbanization.