Projecting species loss and turnover under climate change for Chinese tree species

Abstract

Climate-change-induced habitat loss will be the largest global threat to biodiversity. Here, we projected species turnover and loss for Chinese tree species under four climate change scenarios. The results show that many trees will be seriously threatened. On average across climate scenarios, about 57% or 23% of the trees would be vulnerable or threatened under no migration assumption or universal migration by 2070, respectively. Projection of species loss and turnover in grid cells indicates considerable variation across climate change scenarios (20%–30% and 40%–65%, respectively) and across geographical regions (25.4%–58.1% and 40.6%–78.8%, respectively). Notably, local extinction risks for Chinese trees species may be high; even under the most conservative situation (lowest emission scenario with universal migration), 18% trees will still be vulnerable or threatened. We suggest that a further studying trees adaptation strategy to climate change is required to ensure the sustainable development of China’s forests.