Projecting Religious Demographics: The Case of Jews in the United States

Abstract

AbstractDrawing upon the comprehensive survey of the American Jewish population conducted in 2013 by the Pew Research Center, we estimate the trajectory of the population and its denominational segments, 50 years into the future. Our analysis relies upon estimates of the population in 2013, fertility rates, marriage behaviors, and denominational switching patterns as inputs into a model of population demographics. We project that over the next 50 years, the demographics of U.S. Jews are likely to change dramatically, with the share of the population that is Orthodox rising from 12 percent to 29 percent, with their share of the child population increasing from 22 percent to 51 percent. Among Reform and Conservative Jews, the number of 30‐ to 69‐year‐olds is projected to drop by approximately 46 percent over this period. We also project a slight drop in the total Jewish population followed by a recovery propelled by the growing Orthodox population.