Abstract
This study aims to project future sea-level rise (SLR) at the Phrachula Chomklao Fort (PCF) tide gauge station in the Upper Gulf of Thailand (UGoT) using the outputs of 35 climate models under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios: representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5. The Linear Scaling method was found to be better than Variance Scaling and Quantile Mapping methods for removing biases in raw Global Circulation Models (GCMs) sea level data. Land subsidence, induced by excessive groundwater abstraction, was found to contribute significantly to SLR during the observed period the PCF gauging station; hence, the effects of land subsidence had to be removed from relative sea level before bias correction. The overall increase in SLR is projected to be 0.94–1.05 mm/year under RCP4.5 and 1.07–1.18 mm/year under RCP8.5 for the twenty-first century in the UGoT. The results suggest that future SLR due to climate change will not be as severe in the study region compared to average global projections. However, land subsidence can amplify future SLR. It is therefore important to regulate groundwater abstraction in the future so that SLR can be restricted. It is even more relevant in the UGoT as the raw water intake from the Chao Phraya River for municipal water supply to Bangkok is close to the estuary, and SLR in the future can pose additional challenges for the water utility.
Highlights
According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1], the global mean temperature has increased by approximately 1 ◦ C (0.8 ◦ C–1.0 ◦ C) since pre-industrial levels, and the increase is expected to be1.5 ◦ C by 2030–2052
The higher rate of relative sea-level rise (SLR) at the Phrachula Chomklao Fort (PCF) station is due to land subsidence in the vicinity [16]
The period between 1961 and 2000 was marked by heavy groundwater abstraction [40], which led to significant land subsidence, and the rate of relative SLR is the highest
Summary
According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1], the global mean (land and ocean surface combined) temperature has increased by approximately 1 ◦ C (0.8 ◦ C–1.0 ◦ C) since pre-industrial levels, and the increase is expected to be1.5 ◦ C by 2030–2052. According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1], the global mean (land and ocean surface combined) temperature has increased by approximately 1 ◦ C (0.8 ◦ C–1.0 ◦ C) since pre-industrial levels, and the increase is expected to be. The thermal expansion of seawater and melting glaciers and ice sheets due to the temperature increase have led to a rise in global mean sea levels since the early. The observed global mean SLR of 3.2 mm/year during 1993–2010 is primarily due to ocean thermal expansion and changes in glaciers, the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet, and land water storage at an estimated 1.10, 0.76, 0.33, 0.27, and 0.38 mm/year, respectively [2].
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