Projecting range limits with coupled thermal tolerance - climate change models: an example based on gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. east coast.

Jonathan A Hare,Matthew E Kimball,Mark J Wuenschel

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052294

Abstract

We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.

Highlights

Temperature is a dominant factor shaping the distribution of marine species [1] [2,3]
Nye et al [22] estimated an annual change of 1.5 km yr21 in the center of biomass of fishes on the northeast U.S continental shelf. These rates of change are lower than the 19 km yr21 observed for marine species in general [59] and lower than the 4.5–5.9 km yr21 projected for marine fishes globally from 2000–2050 [30]
Our conceptual model is more specific than general niche-based models, in that we identified a specific ontogenetic stage and season in which distribution is determined and we developed specific parameters measuring the physiological boundary of wintertime niche for juvenile gray snapper

Summary

Introduction

Temperature is a dominant factor shaping the distribution of marine species [1] [2,3]. This overarching effect results from the influence of temperature on a number of biological processes [4] [5,6]. All animals have thermal limits above and below which death is rapid Within these limits, temperature controls a number of rate processes including gene expression, enzyme kinetics, metabolism, activity, consumption, and growth. Fishes respond behaviorally, metabolically, and ecologically to changes in temperature; the best examples comes from seasonal migrations, which are distributional responses related to changes in temperature [8]. Temperature is a dominant environmental factor determining the size and distribution of the niche of many fish species [11]

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Conclusion