Abstract
After 1973 oil crisis energy policy making and security were considered seriously. Most of studies attempted to project plausible futures to guarantee or evaluate strategies in dynamic, competitive global energy market. For this reason there is a rational comprehensive three step model contains of (1) scanning existing literature and time series data (past), (2) analyzing state of present and finally (3) projecting possible alternative futures. This paper presents a detailed survey on historical strategies of Iranian oil and gas industries. Extracted information examined by expert's opinions to generate inputs for scenario building phase. It proposed a scenario generation model started with main incompatible (heterogeneous) goals (or objective functions) and then scenario logics are built in a modified morphological analysis matrix to narrate different plausible scenarios/futures. Then three scenario streams are investigated including the best case, the worst case to narrow scenario space and a reference case to demonstrating elements of the most possible future. Finally a diagnosis analysis implemented to map state of Iran in current post-pact age and plausible strategies are recommended based on a win-win interaction in international community/market.
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