Projecting Physician Requirements for Child Health Care—1990

Abstract

In 1976 the Secretary of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare appointed the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) with the charge to advise the Secretary on five national health planning objectives, including estimates of the numbers of physicians required to meet the health care needs of the nation, recommendations regarding the most appropriate specialty distribution of these physicians, and development of strategies to achieve the recommendations formulated by the committee. GMENAC evaluated projected supply and requirements for all major specialties, including child health care, for 1990, and recommended strategies to bring supply and requirement into reasonable balance. Despite the range of error of the methodology used, these data represent the most detailed scientific study to date on this subject. Pediatrics, the portion of child health care accruing to the pediatrician in 1990 was projected to be in "near balance" for supply/requirement ratio. Inasmuch as GMENAC recommended that larger surpluses be created deliberately in the three primary care fields, it is unlikely that the numbers of pediatric residency training programs will be decreased. As several hundred pediatric residency positions are unfilled each year, a concomitant decrease in residency offerings in oversupplied fields would be required to accomplish the recommended subspecialty distribution.