Abstract
The marked increase in infants born with microcephaly in Brazil after a 2015 outbreak of Zika virus (Zika virus) disease suggests an association between maternal Zika virus infection and congenital microcephaly. To project the timing of delivery of infants born to mothers infected during early pregnancy in 1 city in Bahia State, Brazil, we incorporated data on reported Zika virus disease cases and microcephaly cases into a graphical schematic of weekly birth cohorts. We projected that these births would occur through February 2016. Applying similar projections to a hypothetical location at which Zika virus transmission started in November, we projected that full-term infants at risk for Zika virus infection would be born during April-September 2016. We also developed a modifiable spreadsheet tool that public health officials and researchers can use for their countries to plan for deliveries of infants to women who were infected with Zika virus during different pregnancy trimesters.
Highlights
The marked increase in infants born with microcephaly in Brazil after a 2015 outbreak of Zika virus disease suggests an association between maternal Zika virus infection and congenital microcephaly
For pregnancies that began in December 2014 or January 2015, the highest likelihood of Zika virus infection would have been late in the first trimester or during the second trimester of pregnancy, and these pregnancies would have resulted in term births during September and October 2015
For pregnancies that began during late February 2015–May 2015, the highest likelihood of Zika virus infection would have been during the first trimester, and term births would have occurred during November 2015– February 2016
Summary
The marked increase in infants born with microcephaly in Brazil after a 2015 outbreak of Zika virus disease suggests an association between maternal Zika virus infection and congenital microcephaly. To project the timing of delivery of infants born to mothers infected during early pregnancy in 1 city in Bahia State, Brazil, we incorporated data on reported Zika cases and microcephaly cases into a graphical schematic of weekly birth cohorts We projected that these births would occur through February 2016. As Zika virus has spread through the Americas, questions have arisen about the remarkably high numbers of infants with microcephaly reported in Brazil and the absence of reported microcephaly cases in some other countries where transmission is high To help answer these questions, assessment of the timing of transmission and its relation to gestational week of pregnancy for the cohort of women who were pregnant during the outbreak is necessary. Public health officials and researchers in areas with local transmission could apply these methods to country-specific data to produce more precise models and predictions
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