Abstract
Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.
Highlights
Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change
2,742,717 non-accidental deaths, 1,274,558 cardiovascular deaths, 670,017 stroke deaths, 431,814 ischemic heart disease deaths, 397,738 respiratory deaths, and 302,125 chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) deaths were obtained from 7 regions in mainland China during the study period
A steep increase in projected temperature is consistently observed across this century under the RCP8.5 scenario, while only a slight increase in projected temperature is assumed for RCP4.5 after the middle of this century
Summary
Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. Current studies have been mainly confined to projecting the mortality effects of climate change in highly developed cities, leading to considerable uncertainties when generalizing the evidence to larger regions with diverse socioeconomic levels[8,10,11]. These previous investigations have different analytical strategies, model specifications, and study periods, which may reduce the comparability of results across regions; they cannot provide an assessment of vulnerability at regional levels or a whole picture of the development of climate change mitigation initiatives for policymakers. Quantitative evidence on the impact of future high temperatures on health in China is scarce[7,11,13], and the influence of future population aging on heat vulnerability often is ignored in these studies
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
