Abstract
We performed bias correction in future climate change scenarios to provide better accuracy of models through adaptation to future climate change. The proposed combination of the change factor (CF) and quantile mapping (QM) methods combines the individual advantages of both methods for adjusting the bias in global circulation models (GCMs) and regional circulation models (RCMs). We selected a study site in Songwol-dong, Seoul, Republic of Korea, to test and assess our proposed method. Our results show that the combined CF + QM method delivers better performance in terms of correcting the bias in GCMs/RCMs than when both methods are applied individually. In particular, our proposed method considerably improved the bias-corrected precipitation by capturing both the high peaks and amounts of precipitation as compared to that from the CF-only and QM-only methods. Thus, our proposed method can provide high-accuracy bias-corrected precipitation data, which could prove to be highly useful in interdisciplinary studies across the world.
Highlights
With the increase in industrialization around the world, the quality of human life has improved in various aspects through advancement in scientific technology, professionalism in occupations, level of consumption, and so forth
According to the 4th Assessment Report (AR4), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [5], the number of days with precipitation and flood occurrence frequencies has steadily and gradually increased due to unusual climate changes indicating that natural disasters will occur more frequently and intensely in the future than before [5]
The linked change factor (CF) and quantile mapping (QM) method can contribute to a reduction in uncertainties in the bias-correction methods (CF or QM), the inherent uncertainty caused by drawbacks within the global circulation models (GCMs)/regional circulation models (RCMs) data provided by the IPCC/Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is unavoidable
Summary
With the increase in industrialization around the world, the quality of human life has improved in various aspects through advancement in scientific technology, professionalism in occupations, level of consumption, and so forth These improvements have caused an excessive use of fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, natural gas, etc.) [1] and an increase in global temperatures triggered by the increase in greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, etc.) in the troposphere [2]. Republic of Korea has suffered from both frequent floods aided by the direct runoff in the summer period and droughts caused by water scarcity due to unbalanced rainfall during the crop growing seasons. These repetitive natural disasters have caused great economic losses and uncertainties in sustainable water resources management plans across the country every year [7]
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