Projecting climate change impacts on Mediterranean finfish production: a case study in Greece

Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou,Panagiotis Anastasiadis,Konstadia Lika,Nikos Papandroulakis

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03096-y

Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou, Panagiotis Anastasiadis + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03096-y

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Abstract

Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, dynamic energy budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed, and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm levels were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

Highlights

Aquaculture is increasingly under pressure from climate change, and the severity of the threats and the urgency to act are reflected by the EU and global agenda which is heavily oriented towards climate change
The production time exhibits a temporary increase in the mid-term before decreasing in the long term, a trend that can be explained by the temperature projections which posit negligible or even negative shifts in the mid-term (Fig. S4 in the Electronic Supplemental Material (ESM))
The general trend stemming from our simulations is that at the individual level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, reaching commercial sizes faster

Summary

Introduction

Aquaculture is increasingly under pressure from climate change, and the severity of the threats and the urgency to act are reflected by the EU and global agenda which is heavily oriented towards climate change. In line with the objectives of Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), equal focus should be given in tackling the causes of climate change by reducing greenhouse emissions as well as in building climate resilience by mitigation and adaptation (Fankhauser 2017; Teske 2019) To accomplish the latter, the first step is to assess the vulnerability of the food production sector in question, be it poultry and cattle farming, cropping, hunting, fisheries, or aquaculture, and evaluate the potential effects of the arising threats. One such region appears to be the Mediterranean Sea, since the peculiarities of its basin and the low water exchange with other oceanic masses allow for a high rate of temperature increase, rendering it one of the most heavily afflicted areas by climate change (Azzurro et al 2019; Oliver et al 2018)

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