Abstract
The paper describes the development of predictive equations of windthrow for five tree species based on remote sensing of wind-affected stands in southwestern New Brunswick (NB). The data characterises forest conditions before, during and after the passing of extratropical cyclone Arthur, July 4–5, 2014. The five-variable logistic function developed for balsam fir (bF) was validated against remote-sensing-acquired windthrow data for bF-stands affected by the Christmas Mountains windthrow event of November 7, 1994. In general, the prediction of windthrow in the area agreed fairly well with the windthrow sites identified by photogrammetry. The occurrence of windthrow in the Christmas Mountains was prominent in areas with shallow soils and prone to localised accelerations in mean and turbulent airflow. The windthrow function for bF was subsequently used to examine the future impact of windthrow under two climate scenarios (RCP’s 4.5 and 8.5) and species response to local changes anticipated with global climate change, particularly with respect to growing degree-days and soil moisture. Under climate change, future windthrow in bF stands (2006–2100) is projected to be modified as the species withdraws from the high-elevation areas and NB as a whole, as the climate progressively warms and precipitation increases, causing the growing environment of bF to deteriorate.
Highlights
Wind plays an important role in defining the functional and structural characteristics of forest ecosystems globally [1,2,3]
This paper describes the intermediary role of high-velocity winds and forest-state variables in producing windthrow in balsam fir (bF; Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) forests in New Brunswick (NB)
We present a set of windthrow equations used to determine the presence/absence of windthrow in NB forests assessed from remote sensing following episodes of hurricane-strength
Summary
Wind plays an important role in defining the functional and structural characteristics of forest ecosystems globally [1,2,3]. In providing comparisons to the landscape-level behaviour of bF during high-wind events, we generated a secondary set of windthrow functions for four other tree species, including for black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), eastern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.) and red (Acer rubrum L) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). The performances of these species at the landscape level were not tested here due to the absence of independent data needed for this activity. The equations and their parameterisation provide insight as to the behaviour of these other tree species, in contrast to bF, during episodes of strong wind and species-specific factors that initiate windthrow in these species at the landscape level
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