Abstract
The South Gobi region (including Umnugovi, Dundgovi and Dornogovi aimags - provinces) of Mongolia is becoming a leading region of the nation’s economic and social development. Water resources play an important role in ensuring sustainable economic development of the South Gobi region. In the South Gobi region, lack of proven groundwater resources, data on water extraction and consumption makes it difficult to accurately identify risks and to manage limited resources for sustainable development. Based on the available historical data between 2015 and 2019 on water resources and water use, the water demand in this region has been projected up to the year 2050 on the basis of dynamic modelling of water management, including major stakeholders, country’s sustainable economic development vision up to the year 2050, and the impact of climate change. The model predicts continued increasing demand for mining, agricultural, industrial and social services and rural water demands, while gradual decline for the livestock water demand was projected after the gradual increase in the first half of the period. Basing on the system dynamic modelling of water management, it can be said that the groundwater resources of the South Gobi region may not be able to meet the above needs after 2037. Economically feasible measures and managements to prevent the risk of water scarcity before water shortage happens are proposed based on the results of the model.
Highlights
The territory of Mongolia is divided into the 102nd place from among other countries in three drainage basins, namely, Arctic Ocean, terms of total water resources [2] and at the 45th
As of 2016, Mongolian water use amounted to 494 million m3/year [5], and 570 million m3/year in 2018 [6], which is an indication of drastic increase in water usage
According to the water system dynamics model involving all stakeholder in water sector, groundwater withdrawal in the Gobi region is expected to increase from 67 million m3/year in 2015 to 258 million m3/year by 2050
Summary
The territory of Mongolia is divided into the 102nd place from among other countries in three drainage basins, namely, Arctic Ocean, terms of total water resources [2] and at the 45th. The 10.56 km Mongolia ranks at the 55th place among of 609.5 km water resources on the Mongolian other countries implicating high risk in terms of territory are usable resources. Mongolia uses less than 1% of its total water resources, including 0.01% of surface water and up to 4% of groundwater These figures are becoming bigger rapidly in the Central and the South Gobi regions [9]. Many studies have been warning that the limited groundwater resources in the South Gobi region may not be able to meet the growing demands in the future These studies are often based on high, medium, and low water demand in comparison to available water withdrawals. The 2030 Water Resource Group (WRG) projected low, medium and high water demands by 2030 [9] and 2040 [20] in the South Gobi region in 2014, thereafter focusing prioritization on reducing water use. The 2030 WRG updated their previous study on water demand and supply gap focusing mainly on Umnugobi aimag, the Centre of large mining operations in the South Gobi region and has extended the period until 2050 reflecting the long-term development policy “Vision 2050” [21]
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