Projected Utility of All-Electric Aircraft in Reducing Emissions at the Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport

Abstract

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States are heavily driven by the transportation sector, which was responsible for nearly one third of total US emissions in 2019. While ground-based transportation accounts for the majority of transportation sector emissions, rapid and sustained growth in aircraft revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is projected to lead to more than 50% growth in aviation sector emissions relative to the transportation sector as a whole (10.7% to 16.2%), as well as total US emissions (3% to 4.8%). In turn the importance of reducing aviation sector emissions will continue to grow and motivate transition to reduced-emissions aircraft. The ideal pathway for reducing aviation sector emissions is the development and adoption of all-electric aircraft (AEA), however the potential emissions impact of AEA depends on the emissions intensity of the power grid at point of departure. Consequently, the emissions reduction AEA could achieve varies from airport to airport and flight route to flight route, and the potential impact of AEA is poorly understood and insufficiently quantified in open literature. This work evaluates the suitability of the busiest passenger airport in the United States – Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (ATL) in Atlanta, Georgia – for electrification. Using modified literature models for wide-body AEA coupled with projected estimates of the specific energy of lithium air battery cells, the present work determines the market impact and emissions reduction that AEA could achieve through 2050. This work finds that ATL is a suitable hub for future AEA, capable of electrifying up to 65% of total flights and 26% of total RPK – corresponding to 57% of total passengers and leading to more than 5% reduction in emissions from outgoing aircraft contingent on development of advanced Li-air cells with specific energy in excess of 900 Wh/kg by 2050 and the reduction of power plant emissions intensity. This work also demonstrates the high uncertainty of these results: a strong dependence on battery specific energy is shown, leading to roughly one order of magnitude difference in emissions reduction from the ideal high-growth scenario to the low-growth scenario. These results show clear potential for AEA.