Projected sea level rise on the continental shelves of the China Seas and the dominance of mass contribution

Abstract

We analyze the projected sea level rise (SLR) for the 21st century for the China Seas (the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 dataset. We find that the projected SLR over the shallow continental shelves of the China Seas is nearly the same as the global mean sea level change in all future emission scenarios, with a magnitude of 43.6 cm (20.8–67.7 cm, 90% confidence interval) in RCP2.6 and 74.5 cm (41.7–112.8 cm, 90% confidence interval) in RCP8.5 by the year 2100 relative to 1986–2005. We further analyze the causes of SLR and find that more than 90% of the total projected SLR over the continental shelves of the China Seas will result from mass contributions and only a minor contribution will result from local steric height adjustments. This increase in water mass over the continental shelves is not only caused by the loss of land ice, but also from the change in sterodynamic, which tends to push water mass onto the continental shelves from the open oceans.