Projected impacts of land use and road network changes on increasing flood hazards using a 4D GIS: A case study in Makkah metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Makkah City, west of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is considered the third main highly populated metropolitan area in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It exhibits two unique features that increase the hazardous flood consequences: (1) its topography is very complex and (2) about three million Muslims are gathered annually in Makkah to perform Hajj over a 2-week period. Floods are natural returning hydrological phenomena that have been affecting human lives. The objectives of the current study are: (1) identification of land use types and road networks in Makkah, (2) hydrological modeling of flood characteristics in Makkah based on precise up-to-date databases, (3) examination of the relationship between land use, land cover changes, transportation network expansion, and the floods' prosperities and hazards, and (4) development of digital hydrological maps for present and near future flood hazards in Makkah. The attained results show that the mean runoff depth and the total flood volume are significantly increased from 2010 to 2030. Additionally, it has been found that a great part of the road network in Makkah City is subjected to high dangerous flood impacts. The overall length of flood danger-factor roads is increased from 481 km (with almost 37 %) to 1,398 km (with 74 % approximately) between 2010 and 2030. Thus, it is concluded that urbanization has a direct strong relationship with flood hazards. Consequently, it is recommended that the attained results should be taken into account by decision makers in implementing new development planning of the Makkah metropolitan area.