Projected impacts of climate warming on production of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in southern Yukon lakes

Abstract

We used existing models to predict changes in lake surface temperature and thermocline depth, in combination with a newly developed model to describe lake thermal profiles, to determine how thermal properties of a series of lakes located predominantly in the southern Yukon could change under three realistic climate-warming scenarios. We then used existing models to determine how relative changes in potential harvest of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in southern Yukon lakes could change as availability of optimal thermal habitat was altered under the three warming scenarios. With warming, an overall decrease in availability of optimal thermal habitat and in lake trout potential harvest is predicted in southern Yukon lakes, although considerable lake-specific variation in direction and magnitude of change exists. For southern Yukon lakes overall, 2, 4, and 6 °C increases in mean annual air temperature lead to 12%, 35%, and 40% decreases in thermal habitat volume, respectively, and 8%, 19%, and 23% reductions in potential harvest, respectively.