Abstract
In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes.
Highlights
Tropical montane cloud forests harbor some of the highest concentrations of biodiversity on Earth [1,2,3]
Tropical montane cloud forests depend on frequent immersion in the cloudbank, creating a cool, moist environment with low direct sunlight and low evapotranspiration [4]
Even though the RCP4.5 scenario implies smaller climate forcing in the long run than RCP6.0, the upslope shift under RCP4.5 was more obvious until the year 2050
Summary
Tropical montane cloud forests harbor some of the highest concentrations of biodiversity on Earth [1,2,3]. This information is essential because high-resolution data on range shifts are necessary to quantify a species’ vulnerability to warming temperatures [32], and to examine the availability and configuration of suitable habitat in the projected range These data can help to design conservation measures that aim at ensuring habitat availability and connectivity for cloud forest species in view of ongoing climate change. We assume that the results gained for the El Oro parakeet and the conservation implications derived from these results are applicable and of high relevance for many other cloud forest species, including such species which are less mobile, like amphibians [5, 12] or dispersal-limited bird species We consider it an appropriate umbrella species for assessing the upslope shift in the southern part of the Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena hotspot. We expect the differences in habitat availability to be predictable, with an inverse relationship between habitat availability and the intensity of climate change
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