Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Abstract

AbstractEven if the thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement are reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, generating new vulnerabilities and amplifying those that already exist. In this sense, the objective of this work was to analyse the impact of a global warming of 1.5 and 2°C in the regional climatological patterns of the near‐surface air temperature and precipitation over South America, locating the most affected regions and briefly discussing the possible impacts to be faced on biodiversity and agriculture. The simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used, forced in four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projections for 1.5 or 2°C global warming indicate a local increase even higher, of at least +0.5°C, in almost the entire South American continent. Regarding precipitation, a similar pattern was also found between the two thresholds of global warming. GCMs project an increase of about 100 mm year−1 in the southern region of Brazil and in the northern portion of the Brazilian Northeast, in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela; while the areas between the south of Chile and Argentina and the extreme north of South America show reductions of up to 150 mm year−1. In addition, both the temperature and precipitation patterns were practically similar between the four analysed RCPs scenarios. The results presented in this study indicate that even if the Paris Agreement is very successful, South America will still suffer several impacts and will need to take effective adaptation measures in the short term. This may have pervasive implications for the biodiversity and genetic resource base of the subcontinent, as well as may impair agricultural productivity or incur into considerable adaptation costs for the sector.