Projected impact of a plant-derived vaccine on the burden of seasonal influenza in Canada

Abstract

ABSTRACT Objective The analysis estimates projected population outcomes resulting from the introduction of a plant-derived influenza vaccine formulated as quadrivalent virus-like particles (QVLP) in Canada. Methods Using Monte Carlo simulations, the number of influenza cases, general practitioner visits, inpatient admissions, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths due to influenza-associated illness were estimated under no vaccination, plant-derived QVLP vaccines only, or egg-derived vaccines only. The base case analysis examined the adult Canadian population in two subgroups: 18–64 years of age during the 2017/18 season and 65+ years of age during the 2018/19 season. Efficacy data were obtained from QVLP clinical trials. Vaccine effectiveness data for egg-derived vaccines were calculated from observational studies from the corresponding influenza seasons. Scenario analyses examined the impact of varying absolute vaccine effectiveness or vaccination coverage from base case inputs. Results In the base case analysis, plant-derived QVLP vaccines led to an additional reduction in the burden of influenza over egg-derived vaccines for both population subgroups. In the 18–64 subgroup, QVLP vaccines were associated with 2.63% (48,029; 95% credible interval [Crl]: 42,723–53,336) fewer influenza cases than egg-derived vaccines. In the 65+ subgroup, QVLP vaccines led to 4.82% (27,918; 95% Crl: 25,440–30,397) fewer influenza cases, and reductions in the number of inpatient admissions by 4.77% (1167; 95% CrI: 851–1483) and deaths by 4.75% (326; 95% CrI: 107–546) compared to egg-derived vaccines. Further reductions were observed in scenario analyses considering the potential increase in vaccine coverage. Conclusion Use of plant-derived QVLP influenza vaccines may contribute to greater reductions in influenza cases and influenza-related outcomes, including inpatient admissions and deaths, compared to egg-derived vaccines currently available in Canada.