Projected Future Wind Speed and Wind Power Density Trends over the Western US High Plains

J Scott Greene,Mark Morrissey,Matthew Chatelain,Steve Stadler

doi:10.4236/acs.2012.21005

Abstract

This manuscript presents the results of research on future changes in wind speed and wind power density across the western US High Plains in an area known for its high wind energy resources. Many current policies and economic analyses involving the rapidly expanding wind energy industry have assumed a constant or near constant wind resource. However, any future change in wind speeds will result in changes in the reliability of wind power as an energy resource. This paper uses current data (1970-2000) and future model output (2040-2070) to analyze decadal and seasonal changes in wind speed across the study area. In addition, estimated hub height wind power densities have been analyzed. Results show projections of a slight overall decreasing wind power in the future across the region. The greatest magnitude changes are estimated to be in the seasonal trends with the most substantial decreases occurring in winter and spring. As climate changes and warms overall, there will be shifts in the temperature gradients and the synoptic storm tracks that drive wind speeds. Thus, it is theorized that the wind speeds will be the result of an earlier transition to, and longer duration of, a calmer summertime pattern. This longer duration of a summertime pattern will lead to the decreased wind speeds and lower wind power output identified in this research. This decrease needs to be factored in for any estimates of the long-term costs and benefits of wind farms in the area.

Highlights

With the growing need for different forms of energy outside of fossil fuels, it must be recognized that renewable energy resources will be more commonly used in the future
This paper examines the potential change in near surface wind speed and wind power densities across an area of the Central High Plains of the United States
This section investigates the projected difference in 10 meter wind speed and wind power densities for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) time slice from the 2040-2070 compared to the data from 1970-2000

Summary

Introduction

With the growing need for different forms of energy outside of fossil fuels, it must be recognized that renewable energy resources will be more commonly used in the future. Is susceptible to variations in wind speed Wind statistics such as mean wind speed and gustiness are affected on a wide range of time scales. This paper examines potential changes in wind velocities that could affect the wind power industry by comparing projected wind speed patterns from 2040-2070 and comparing them to historical data from 1970-2000. It is hypothesized that wind speeds will experience change in the future This is because near surface wind speeds are linked to the location of temperature gradients, which will change as the planet warms. This paper examines these changes across the western high plains of the United States in an area known to be a prime location for wind farms. Any change in near surface wind speed will cause an even greater change in wind power potential as the energy created by a turbine is proportional to the cube of the wind speed

Background

Data and Methodology

Results and Discussion

Wind Speed Trends from 2040-2070

Summary