Projected Future Changes in Equatorial Wave Spectrum in CMIP

Abstract

Changes of tropical wave-modes due to climate change will impact the predictability of the tropical atmosphere, and may impact extratropical weather as well. The simulations of convectively coupled equatorial waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are considered in 13 state-of-the-art models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).  We look at the wave-modes using frequency-wavenumber power spectra of the models and observations for Outgoing Longwave Radiation and zonal winds at 250 hPa. We analyze the spectra of the historical simulations and end of 21st century projections for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.  The models simulate a spectrum quantitatively resembling that observed, though systematic biases exist. Most models project a future increase in power spectra for the MJO, while nearly all project a robust increase for Kelvin waves (KW) and weaker power values for most other wavenumber-frequency combinations. Models with a more realistic MJO in their control climate tend to simulate a stronger future intensification. In addition to strengthening, KW also shift toward higher phase speeds. The net effect is a more organized tropical circulation on intraseasonal timescales, which may contribute to higher intrinsic predictability in the tropics and to stronger teleconnections in the extratropics. In addition, those projected changes might be due to extratropical forcings, and more specifically due to changes in the North Pacific subtropical jet.