Projected distribution shifts and protected area coverage of range-restricted Andean birds under climate change

Abstract

In this study we projected the effect of anthropogenic climate change in endemic and restricted-range Andean bird species that spread out from the center of Bolivia to southeastern Peru. We also analyzed the representation of these species in protected areas. The ensemble forecasts from niche-based models indicated that 91–100% of species may reduce their range size under full and no dispersal scenarios, including five species that are currently threatened. The large range reduction (average 63%) suggests these mountain species may be threatened by climate change. The strong effects due to range species losses are predicted in the humid mountain forests of Bolivia. The representation of bird species also decreased in protected areas. Partial gap species (94–86%) are expected to increase over the present (62%). This suggests climate change and other non-climate stressors should be incorporated in conservations plans for the long-term persistence of these species. This study anticipates the magnitude of shifts in the distribution of endemic birds, and represents in the study area the first exploration of the representation of range-restricted Andean birds in protected areas under climate change.