Abstract
Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.
Highlights
Current and future climate change is expected to significantly alter the mountain cryosphere of the European Alps
We analyze the subsequent changes in snow, glaciers, and hydrology according to the AMUNDSEN simulations for the scenario period
Afterwards, we switched to the EURO-CORDEX scenario period and carried out the scenario simulations until 2100
Summary
Rising temperatures are expected to result in more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, a delayed onset of the snowcovered period, and an earlier onset of snowmelt, regardless of the considered emission scenarios (e.g., Frei et al, 2018; Gobiet et al, 2014; Marty et al, 2017). The European mountain glaciers have already lost substantial parts of their volume and area during the past decades. Due to their delayed response to changed climatic conditions, they are still out of balance with the current climate and would continue to recede throughout the century even without any further climatic changes (e.g., Marzeion et al, 2014; Jouvet et al, 2011; Zekollari et al, 2014). Further rising temperatures will only amplify this process, resulting in a total
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