Abstract
Atmospheric conditions affect the release of anemophilous pollen, and the timing and magnitude will be altered by climate change. As simulated with a pollen emission model and future climate data, warmer end-of-century temperatures (4–6 K) shift the start of spring emissions 10–40 days earlier and summer/fall weeds and grasses 5–15 days later and lengthen the season duration. Phenological shifts depend on the temperature response of individual taxa, with convergence in some regions and divergence in others. Temperature and precipitation alter daily pollen emission maxima by −35 to 40% and increase the annual total pollen emission by 16–40% due to changes in phenology and temperature-driven pollen production. Increasing atmospheric CO2 may increase pollen production, and doubling production in conjunction with climate increases end-of-century emissions up to 200%. Land cover change modifies the distribution of pollen emitters, yet the effects are relatively small (<10%) compared to climate or CO2. These simulations indicate that increasing pollen and longer seasons will increase the likelihood of seasonal allergies.
Highlights
Atmospheric conditions affect the release of anemophilous pollen, and the timing and magnitude will be altered by climate change
While these prior studies have evaluated total pollen changes in the historical period, this work highlights the importance of studying taxa-specific pollen emission and finds that the influence of climate change on daily pollen emissions varies for different regional forest compositions
We demonstrate that climate could drive the convergence or divergence of individual taxa pollination, which can magnify or mitigate the climate change impacts and have significant implications for evaluating the consequences of future pollen emissions
Summary
Atmospheric conditions affect the release of anemophilous pollen, and the timing and magnitude will be altered by climate change. As simulated with a pollen emission model and future climate data, warmer end-of-century temperatures (4–6 K) shift the start of spring emissions 10–40 days earlier and summer/fall weeds and grasses 5–15 days later and lengthen the season duration. Land cover change modifies the distribution of pollen emitters, yet the effects are relatively small (
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