Projected Changes in Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature under Alternative Climate Scenarios

David Newth,Don Gunasekera

doi:10.3390/atmos9050187

David Newth, Don Gunasekera

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050187

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Journal: Atmosphere	Publication Date: May 15, 2018
Citations: 21	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Deakin University

Abstract

The increased levels of Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere will result in increased near-surface air temperature and absolute humidity. These two factors increasingly pose a risk of heat stress to humans. The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a widely used and validated index for assessing the environmental heat stress. Using the output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we calculated the global and regional changes in WBGT. Globally, the WBGT is projected to increase by 0.6–1.7 °C for RCP 2.6 and 2.37–4.4 °C for RCP 8.5. At the regional scale, our analysis suggests a disproportionate increase in the WBGT over northern India, China, northern Australia, Africa, Central America and Southeast Asia. An increase in WBGT has consequences not only on human health but also on social and economic factors. These consequences may be exacerbated in developing economies, which are less able to adapt to the changing environmental conditions.

Highlights

Climate change simulations suggest that the global near-surface air temperature will increase in the future due to the effects of elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere [1]
This paper aims to focus our analysis on the large-scale change in climate that leads to the conditions conducive for heat stress; and to explore the global and regional changes to the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature patterns as simulated by the latest generation of earth system models with the consideration of alternative scenarios of GHG emissions
◦ C, with an ensemble was averaged over the last decade of this century shows an increase of Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) that was averaged over the last decade of this century shows an increase of 2.37–4.4 °C, with

Summary

Introduction

Climate change simulations suggest that the global near-surface air temperature will increase in the future due to the effects of elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere [1]. The increase in the near-surface air temperature causes changes in other environmental conditions, such as humidity. These combined effects can pose a significant threat to economic output and infrastructure and to human health and well-being through heat stress [2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9].

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