Abstract
There is a lack of information about the effect of climate change on the water budget for the eastern side of Colombia, which is currently experiencing an increased pressure on its water resources due to the demand for food, industrial use, and human demand for drinking and hygiene. In this study, the lumped model BROOK90 was utilized with input based on the available historical and projected meteorological data, as well as land use and soil information. With this data, we were able to determine the changes in the water balance components in four different regions, representing four different water districts in Eastern Colombia. These four regions reflect four different sets of climate and geographic conditions. The projected data were obtained using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), in which two global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each. These are the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Results showed that the temporal and spatial distribution of water balance components were considerably affected by the changing climate. A reduction in the generated streamflow for all of the studied regions is shown and changes in the evapotranspiration and stored water were varied for each region according to both the climate scenario as well as the characteristics of soil and land use for each area. The results of spatial change of the water balance components showed a direct link to the geography of each region. Soil moisture was reduced considerably in the next decades, and the percentage of decrease varied for each scenario.
Highlights
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1], the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere might have an high influence on the global warming of Earth’s surface over the decades
This study aims to determine the change of the water balance components under climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5) in two periods of time (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), based on the modeling of climatic and hydrologic parameters on four representative regions characterized as individual water districts on the east side and in the middle of Colombia—regions with very different geographic and climatic conditions
The results are expressed in terms of the water balance components given by Equation (1)
Summary
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1], the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere might have an high influence on the global warming of Earth’s surface over the decades. These changes in climate can have long-term implications on social, economic, and ecological processes, while affecting the natural development of ecosystems [2]. It is expected that the increment of average annual and seasonal temperatures in the tropics and subtropics will be higher than that in the mid-latitudes. It is estimated that for each degree produced from global warming, there will be a reduction of at least 20% in hydric resources for approximately 7% of the global population [3]
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