Projected Changes in the Snow Cover Extent in the 21st Century in Eurasia According to Simulations with the Ensemble of Climate Models CMIP6

Abstract

The analysis of changes in the snow cover extent S in Eurasia was performed using the results of simulations with the ensemble of global climate models of the international project CMIP6 under the scenario of anthropogenic impacts SSP2-4.5 for the 21st century. Features of S variability in relation to changes in surface air temperature T in different seasons are revealed by comparison of ensemble model calculations for the “historical” scenario to CDR satellite data against the background of a general decrease in the snow cover extent in Eurasia during the contemporary warming. It is noted that the multimodel ensemble mean estimates of the sensitivity parameter dS/dT for the transitional seasons in spring and autumn can be significantly lower in absolute values than those for the individual models and those derived from the satellite data. Comparison of model estimates with satellite observation data showed that the models generally reproduce the observed variations in the snow cover area in Eurasia, while variations in the area may be underestimated for individual models. According to ensemble model calculations, the rate of snow cover reduction in Eurasia in the second half of the XXI century decreases compared to the first half of the XXI century for all seasons. At the same time, the maximum values of snow cover extent reduction rate in Eurasia are inherent in transitional seasons – autumn and spring.