Abstract
AbstractGlobal warming is expected to produce modifications in the intensity, as well as in the seasonality and spatiotemporal structure of extreme precipitation. In the present study, the temporal evolution of simulated daily and subdaily precipitation extremes was analyzed to assess how they respond to climate warming over different time horizons. Pooling series from the recent 50‐member Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 Large Ensemble, the probability distributions, date and time of occurrences, and spatiotemporal structure of simulated Annual Maxima (AM) precipitation were analyzed at various spatial scales and for durations between 1 hr and 3 days. In agreement with previous studies, the results underline the large increases in AM precipitation quantiles, especially for the shortest durations and for the more extreme events (i.e., longest return periods), and modifications in their spatiotemporal scaling properties and annual and diurnal cycles. For instance, subdaily AM extremes are expected to occur later in the evening, while, no matter the duration, the extremes are expected to occur over a wider period of the year in future climate. Finally, the analysis of projected AM probability distributions showed that heavy‐tail Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions will most likely be observed in the future climate, with some model grid boxes experiencing a significant increase of GEV shape parameters. These results may have major consequences in terms of the occurrence and possible impacts of the most extreme precipitation events.
Highlights
The impact of climate change on precipitation is a major issue in hydrological and climate science due to the potential impacts these changes may have on natural ecosystems and socio‐economic activities (Fischer & Knutti, 2016)
The analysis of projected Annual Maxima (AM) probability distributions showed that heavy‐tail Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions will most likely be observed in the future climate, with some model grid boxes experiencing a significant increase of GEV shape parameters
The analysis focuses on the assessment of temporal changes in the extreme rainfall statistical properties, such as depth quantiles and date or time of extreme occurrence, at various spatial scales and for durations ranging from 1 hr to 3 days
Summary
The impact of climate change on precipitation is a major issue in hydrological and climate science due to the potential impacts these changes may have on natural ecosystems and socio‐economic activities (Fischer & Knutti, 2016). Some evidence of changes in the duration and spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall events, such as the spatial extent and autocorrelation structure, have been reported (e.g., Wasko et al, 2016, for observed precipitation series; Li et al, 2015, and Guinard et al, 2015, for Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations under future conditions; and Prein et al, 2017, for convection permitting RCM projections). This has important implications for security issues, resource management, and infrastructure design since watershed and ecosystem response to extreme rainfall events highly depends on their spatial and temporal features
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
