Projected changes in the near-surface atmosphere over the Barents Sea based on CMIP5 scenarios

Abstract

Atmospheric climatological characteristics of the Barents Sea were analyzed in the model output of AMIP5 models for the present climate and climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for different periods of the 21st century. The results reveal strong changes in the mean surface air temperature amounting to more than 2 degrees during the 21st century. In line with this the frequency and duration of heat waves is increasing with the number and duration of the cold waves decreasing in course of the time period analyzed. Mean wind speed demonstrates upward changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and these changes are accompanied by the upward change in the extreme wind speed over the Barents Sea at least for the first half of the century. The results are discussed in the context of potential changes in the atmospheric moisture transports which might be intensified during 21st century.