Projected changes in rainfall and temperature using CMIP6 models over the Okavango River basin, southern Africa

Abstract

The Okavango River Basin (ORB) which includes a renowned World Heritage site Okavango Delta, contains highly biodiverse ecosystems. Most of its rural population relies on rain-fed subsistence farming. Limited research has been done on future changes in rainfall and temperature in this region. Here, such changes are analysed for the periods 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the historical period 1985–2014. The analysis is based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) SSP245 and SSP585. The projected changes vary over the ORB. For rainfall, the models project some significant decreasing trends over Ngamiland in the central/southern ORB, but none are significant over the northern ORB. The significant trends during the near term period include those projected by the model average (-30.60 mm/decade) in March–April (MA) under the SSP585 scenario. Some significant decreasing rainfall trends have also been found in December-February (DJF), but none are significant in October–November (ON). DJF is the main growing season whereas ON (MA) is the onset (end) of the rainy season. For temperature, significant warming trends have been found over both Ngamiland and the northern ORB, with the strongest warming in ON particularly during the near term period. For this ON season over the northern ORB, under the SSP585 (SSP245) scenario, the model average projects a warming trend of 0.56 °C/decade (0.67 °C/decade). These findings may help with the management of agricultural activities, water resources and the highly biodiverse ecosystems in the ORB.