Abstract
The responses of regional hydrological variables to climate change are of prime concern for agricultural water resources planning and management. Therefore, the seasonal (April–September) and annual (January–December) evolution of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture (SM), deep aquifer recharge (DA), and water yield (WYLD) was investigated using established statistical techniques for the historical, near and far future (1983–2007: His, 2010–2034: NF, 2040–2064: FF) in the agricultural region of Alberta, Canada. Previously calibrated and validated agro-hydrological models (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to generate these variables. Future changes were investigated under two representative concentration pathways, i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, projected by nine global climate models (GCM). Results revealed that Alberta had become warmer and drier during the His period. The future projection showed an increase in precipitation, SM, DA, and WYLD, in turn, indicated more water resources. Precipitation and temperature were projected to increase between 1 to 7% and 1.21 to 2.32 °C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation showed a higher trend magnitude than that of annual precipitation. The temperature generally had an increasing trend in the future with a maximum in the southern Alberta. Monthly average ET was likely to increase and decrease in the rising and falling limbs of the bell-shaped curve with the peak in July. A comparison of water demand from two land use types (dominant land use and barley) during the His period showed that water deficit existed in July and August. The results of this study could help in understanding anticipated changes in hydrological variables and decision-making regarding the regional agricultural water resources management.
Highlights
Global climate warming is undoubtedly happening due to the anthropogenic actions which include burning fossil fuels, deforestation and rapid urbanization [1]
The future projection showed an increase in precipitation, soil moisture (SM), deep aquifer recharge (DA), and water yield (WYLD), in turn, indicated more water resources
Despite temperature and precipitation that have been focus of an overwhelming majority of trend studies in literature, limited research is available on trend analysis of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, deep aquifer recharge, and water yield [14]
Summary
Global climate warming is undoubtedly happening due to the anthropogenic actions which include burning fossil fuels, deforestation and rapid urbanization [1]. Investigated Canada-wide annual mean surface air temperature and found an increase of 1.5 ◦ C over the 1950 to 2010 period This warming is accompanied by changes in other variables including a mixture of non-significant positive and negative trends in seasonal precipitation of Canadian prairies [12] and decreases in streamflow [13]. Despite temperature and precipitation that have been focus of an overwhelming majority of trend studies in literature, limited research is available on trend analysis of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, deep aquifer recharge, and water yield [14] These variables profoundly influence the hydrological cycle in the context of climate change and agricultural productivity. This study investigates the variability and trend of hydrological variables, i.e., precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, deep aquifer recharge and water yield under the impacts of climate change in Alberta, Canada. An extensive calibration and validation of hydrologic models of Alberta are available [20,21], allowing simulation of agro-hydrologic variables for the purpose of this study
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