Projected changes in heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century

Abstract

In this study the changes in the nighttime heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century were examined. To quantify the heat load, the tropical night climate index was used. The MUKLIMO_3 local scale climate model was used to describe the urban processes and the land use classes were defined by the local climate zones. The expected change was examined over three periods: the 1981–2010 was taken as reference period using the Carpatclim database and the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods using EURO-CORDEX regional model simulation data for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To combine the detailed spatial resolution and the long time series, a downscaling method was applied. Our results show that spectacular changes could be in the number of tropical nights during the 21st century and the increasing effect of the urban landform is obvious. In the near future, a slight increase can be expected in the number of tropical nights, which magnitude varies from city to city and there is no major difference between the scenarios. However, at the end of the century the results of the two scenarios differ: the values can be 15-25 nights in case of RCP4.5 and 30-50 nights in case of RCP8.5. The results show that dwellers could be exposed to high heat load in the future, as the combined effect of climate change and urban climate, thus developing various mitigation and adaptation strategies is crucial.