Projected changes in forest fire season, the number of fires, and burnt area in Fennoscandia by 2100

Abstract

Abstract. Forest fire dynamics are expected to alter due to climate change. Despite the projected increase in precipitation, rising temperatures will amplify forest fire risk from the present to the end of the century. Here, we analysed changes in fire season, the number of fires, and burnt area in Fennoscandia from 1951 to 2100. Regional simulations from the JSBACH–SPITFIRE ecosystem model (where SPITFIRE stands for SPread and InTensity of FIRE) were performed under two climate change forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three global climate driver models (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, and MIROC5) with a 0.5° resolution. Simulations were forced by downscaled and bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX data. Generally, as a consequence of the projected longer fire season and drier fuel, the probability of fires is projected to increase. However, changes in fire season, the number of fires, and burnt area are highly dependent on climate projections and location. The fire season is estimated to increase on average from 20 ± 7 to 52 ± 12 d, starting from 10 ± 9 to 23 ± 11 d earlier and ending from 10 ± 10 to 30 ± 16 d later, compared to the reference period (1981–2010), by the end of the century (2071–2100). The results for Finland indicate a change in the number of fires, ranging from −7 ± 4 % to 98 ± 56 %, and a change in burnt area, ranging from −19 ± 24 % to 87 ± 42 %. These findings contribute to a better understanding of potential changes in the future fire seasons of northern Europe.