Projected changes in Feddema climate characteristics in the Larger Carpathian Region by the end of the 21st century

Abstract

AbstractClimate change in the Larger Carpathian Region (LCR) by the end of the century has been analysed using the Feddema climate classification. Temperature (T) and precipitation (P) data for the reference period 1971–2000 were taken from the CarpatClim dataset and projected data for the period 2069–2098 were taken from the EURO‐CORDEX dataset. The delta‐corrected simulated data with EUR‐11 and EUR‐44 resolutions are based on the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results obtained with the RCA4‐EC‐EARTH model pair are presented. Climate indices calculated from T and P describe annual heat and water availability, define the magnitude of seasonal variation and attribute seasonality to the variation of T or P. Changes in spatial coverage of climate types and seasonality types, and spatial shifts in each of the variables are presented. The analysis is performed for the total area and separately for lowlands, hills, low‐, mid‐ and high‐altitude mountain regions. There is a shift indicating warming for every climate type and the climate types indicating water deficiency are to become dryer while climate types with water surplus are to become wetter by the end of the 21st century. In most cases seasonality attributed to T is becoming dominant together with increasing magnitude of seasonality. According to RCP4.5, climate type change will affect 26.2% and seasonality type change will affect 23.2% of the study area. In case of RCP8.5 climate type change is projected on 64.4% and seasonality type change is projected on 48.5% of the study area, respectively. Changes in climate types and seasonality types are more significant in every subregion and altitudinal region of the LCR for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Climate change projections suggest not only warming but significant changes in moisture availability and seasonality, especially the magnitude of seasonality in mountainous areas.